(* Source : Worldsinmotion.com *)

Posted by Leigh Alexander :

 

 

 

A panel at the 2007 Virtual Worlds Conference titled, 'Demographics and Numbers: Where Things Are and Where They're Headed' brought together Michael Cai, director of Broadband and Gaming at Parks Associates, Mary Ellen Gordon, owner of Market Truths Limited, and K Zero managing director Nic Mitham to parse out the demographics in the virtual worlds space.

Looking at market penetration, Mitham opined, "I think it’s pretty fair to say that virtual growth to date has been heavily based on word of mouth and viral marketing.” Moreover, Mitham expects the trend to continue, calling on the example of companies like BMW opening Second Life islands to widespread media coverage as a driver of Second Life population growth.

Finding New Markets, Developing Existing Ones

One can't rely purely on PR for advertising, Mitham added, stating that he hopes to see traditional marketing to start happening. "We’re seeing children actively adopting Club Penguin, Whyville, Habbo... as they eventually grow out of it, they will be looking for new worlds to grow into. There’s a huge market already there, waiting to happen."

The market is developing globally, too, Mitham said, noting that European countries are also actively embracing virtual worlds. Though typically Russia and South America are slower to adapt, Mitham noted, these are large growth areas that will begin adopting virtual worlds more in the future.

"We don't see much for 'silver surfers,'" Mitham added, noting that older users are also a prime growth area. Similarly, he expects corporate adoption to broaden, as companies like IBM encourage their employees to move into virtual worlds for corporate uses, and educational institutes are using virtual worlds in the classroom for the set aged 8 to 15.

Engaging New Users

It's a matter of product development, he said -- developing new products for marketplaces that already exist. Mitham also noted that better user interfaces and new user orientation will assist in driving more widespread adoption, as will other avenues of access like web-based remote viewers.

Diversification is the other key avenue, Mitham noted -- bringing new products into untapped markets, as with category-centric "vertical worlds". One example Mitham raised is Football Superstars, a virtual world currently in development for people who play football and soccer. Half the world is for playing football, the other half is for living the life of a footballer.

Beyond this, there are platform-centric virtual worlds, such as Sony's upcoming PlayStation Home, which will be used as a convergence tool for gamers. "The reason for going in isn’t the new technology; people are going in for a specific reason,," Mitham said.

Additionally, Mitham said that avatars that can cross worlds -- the interoperability work IBM is currently involved in -- will be "a really good driving factor for getting more people engaged in virtual worlds."

Mitham offered some projections on growth in virtual worlds he believes will take place between the fourth quarter of 2007 to the fourth quarter of 2008. He anticipates growth of registered accounts in Second Life to increase from 10 million to 20 million, 1 million to 7 million for There, .6 to 3 million for Kaneva, from zero to 10 million for the Chinese virtual world HiPiHi, an increase from 3 million to 10 million for Whyville, and from 15 million to 30 million for Club Penguin.

Chris Woodard contributed to this report.

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